After a hiatus of a few months, while we waited for frothiness in AI expectations to calm down (link), we are re-entering the semicap trade on the long side. On a near-term basis we expect LRCX/AMAT management presentations at the upcoming investor conferences to crystallize investor expectations into next year and act a positive catalyst. […]
Into the run-away enthusiasm for semicaps in recent weeks, we would be cautious heading into earnings season. Its not just that the new export restrictions may have more bite than imagined even a week ago, we think the Street may have become overly optimistic with regards to fundamentals. If investors are looking for the multi-year […]
The surge in investor interest this year in the HDD sector has been huge. Its lateral implications to semis and the AI space in general have been sizable enough for us to step in, suggest a few ideas and address a few myths. Lead time for the high-capacity HDDs, especially for SKUs preferred by hyperscale […]
Despite the ~60% rise in the stock over the past three months, despite having had a superior return than AMD/NVDA/AVGO over the quarter, Intel finds few takers on the Street. And for good reason. From a purely quant perspective the stock is un-investable. At the call today, there is no saying how far below long […]
Does the loss of the China business fundamentally change the trajectory at NVDA? We do not believe so. That the China business was at risk should come as no surprise; there had been plenty of warning from the previous administration. The Trump administration, in this one instance, is merely carrying out the guidance provided by […]
While the Street worries about stagnant momentum in the memory markets and expects modest print and guide, we think the highlight of the call today could well be about MU breaking out of NVDA’s grip. Going into the 3FQ24 earnings event in June, we called a near-term top to MU’s fundamentals (link) and cut our […]
The Company filed an 8-k Friday after market close – the NASDAQ has granted its request for an extension for filing the necessary 10-K and 10-Q documents. The company has until 2/25/25 to file the documents and will remain listed on the exchange while it prepares the documents under the supervision of its newly appointed […]
In a disappointing presentation at an investor conference yesterday, the CFO, newly appointed as interim co-CEO, missed an opportunity to wipe the slate clean and start afresh. If, at the very least, Q4 guidance was reiterated, that would have been progress. But the vague language leaves investors guessing. Progress on 18A? Looks like the schedule […]
South Korea casts an outsized shadow on the global electronics supply chain. The shocking series of events in S Korea over the past 24 hours, a country known for its political stability, is sending shivers down the supply chain in Asia, already on edge due to the trade uncertainty radiating from the US. MU may […]
NVDA stock traded up ~20% since early October when the CEO started a media/Street campaign to message that Blackwell demand is ‘insane’ and that ‘everything’s on track’. With the stock close to its all-time high, we detect investor nervousness given that the valuation is leveraged to Blackwell, a future product cycle that has had trouble […]