Versus the muted expectations on the Street for near-term iPhone momentum, we are long into print. The Street is inundated with chatter of order cuts at iPhone16. We take a more nuanced view and look for upside to Street’s lowered expectations for Dec quarter. Our expectation for Dec upside is not based on a boost […]
An article in Digitimes highlights large-scale problems in Samsung logic foundry operations, not very surprising given the negative outlook from ASML last month. This piles on top of the series of negative comments outlined in Samsung’s earnings call last week – DRAM/NAND capacity adjustments to normalize inventory, ongoing slowdown in smartphones, lackluster progress in HBM3e. […]
A darling of Wall Street until just a few months ago, SMCI now finds itself in financial, regulatory and legal purgatory. When we took a negative view on the stock into the previous earnings call, we could not have anticipated accounting problems and the existential threat the Company now faces (link). Into the previous earnings […]
Semis had been sailing smoothly for a little over a month until yesterday when the sector ran into a spot of rough weather. Back-to-back squalls had the Street running for cover. Two separate headlines drove semis – ASML down 16% and NVDA down 4% dragged the sector down and forced the bulls to revisit their […]
Google hosted an event to roll out Gemini Nano powered applications on the just launched Pixel 9 smartphone. The full set of AI features to be made available in Android models to launch later this year. Quick summaryGoogle rolled out a series of small but significant improvements in existing Android features powered by Gemini Nano, […]
NVDA investors wade today into one of the more confusing earnings events in recent memory. During NVDA’s ‘quiet period’, investors have been pummeled with a profusion of lightly sourced information with regards to product delays, alternate product SKUs, detailed failure analysis and so on and so forth. The supporting cast of analysts, channel partners and Asia media […]
After an initial surge in the China domestic market in September/October, the availability of the Huawei’s highly publicized Mate60 premium smartphone seems to have largely melted away. Why? We believe Huawei may not have been able to sustain supply of its Kirin9000 modem chip. And why is that? We believe it is due to inadequate […]
A quarter ago when we raised our FY25 eps estimate to ~$12 (link) and with consensus estimates at ~$7, we felt it appropriate to value the stock at $150 by applying a 12x multiple, in the upper half of historical range. With the stock having hit out PT, and with Street eps estimates now likely […]
Even after the sharp move in the stock post-wwdc, we do not believe many investors appreciate the real value in the stock. The value lies not in gigantic LLMs or snazzy demos. Rather, AAPL’s value lies in a rich vein of gold that hyperscale peers do not have access to. And even if they did, […]
If 2023 was the year of text-based interaction with AI models, 2024 appears to be the year of interaction via human voice, ‘chatting’ in the real sense of the word. We were positive on AAPL through the lean months earlier this year, and we remain positive on the expectation of an AI-triggered refresh cycle. While […]