NVDA investors wade today into one of the more confusing earnings events in recent memory. During NVDA’s ‘quiet period’, investors have been pummeled with a profusion of lightly sourced information with regards to product delays, alternate product SKUs, detailed failure analysis and so on and so forth. The supporting cast of analysts, channel partners and Asia media […]
After an initial surge in the China domestic market in September/October, the availability of the Huawei’s highly publicized Mate60 premium smartphone seems to have largely melted away. Why? We believe Huawei may not have been able to sustain supply of its Kirin9000 modem chip. And why is that? We believe it is due to inadequate […]
A quarter ago when we raised our FY25 eps estimate to ~$12 (link) and with consensus estimates at ~$7, we felt it appropriate to value the stock at $150 by applying a 12x multiple, in the upper half of historical range. With the stock having hit out PT, and with Street eps estimates now likely […]
Even after the sharp move in the stock post-wwdc, we do not believe many investors appreciate the real value in the stock. The value lies not in gigantic LLMs or snazzy demos. Rather, AAPL’s value lies in a rich vein of gold that hyperscale peers do not have access to. And even if they did, […]
If 2023 was the year of text-based interaction with AI models, 2024 appears to be the year of interaction via human voice, ‘chatting’ in the real sense of the word. We were positive on AAPL through the lean months earlier this year, and we remain positive on the expectation of an AI-triggered refresh cycle. While […]
NVDA bulls appear to have decided to sit out the immediate aftermath of the earnings call and prepare for a temporary pullback. They appear secure in their belief that the H-series continues to be supply -constrained, and with the added insurance that the beefier B100 is just around the corner. So why worry? Let’s buy […]
Anxious to shed its image of being overly dependent on the mature smartphone market, the narrative from ARM management at the earnings call last night leaned heavily towards cloud server CPUs. However, we think the strength in royalty revenue in the December quarter was driven by the more mundane ‘annual refresh cycle’ of premium smartphones […]